KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

81%

79%

63%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

HRESNO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.80u · HRES −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	70.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	52.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	58.7%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	84.7%	47.2%	—	43.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	39.2%	54.4%	66.3%	—	45.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	43.2%	67.7%	46.2%	—	38.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	95.5%	97.3%	64.8%	—	53.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	46.7%	55.0%	34.5%	62.3%	40.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	64.2%	74.7%	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	91.3%	87.8%	57.0%	—	63.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	57.1%	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	79.1%	89.4%	60.0%	—	64.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	94.1%	82.9%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	70.4%	62.4%	81.0%	—	71.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	75.9%	64.7%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	60.2%	61.2%	79.5%	—	51.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	82.4%	67.4%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	90.1%	87.5%	88.6%	—	66.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	90.8%	88.2%	61.1%	—	54.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	91.0%	19.1%	82.5%	24.2%	55.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	90.8%	88.6%	86.8%	—	61.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	91.5%	95.4%	91.0%	25.6%	62.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	94.4%	89.1%	90.2%	—	60.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	88.7%	93.9%	28.4%	61.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	87.5%	97.0%	92.4%	—	67.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	82.8%	97.5%	94.9%	54.3%	60.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	75.2%	98.3%	93.0%	—	61.9%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	59.4%	98.4%	91.1%	60.9%	62.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	86.9%	94.2%	92.1%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	69.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗