KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

81%

79%

63%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

HRESNO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.80u · HRES −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	68.6%	50.0%	62.3%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	68.6%	50.0%	62.3%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	68.6%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	73.6%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	73.6%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	74.5%	91.0%	73.6%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	78.9%	91.0%	73.6%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	78.9%	91.0%	73.6%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	78.9%	91.0%	73.6%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	78.9%	91.0%	73.6%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	78.9%	91.0%	73.6%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	78.9%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	78.9%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	78.9%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.7%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	72.3%	90.9%	74.0%	60.9%	94.6%
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.6%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	94.6%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	74.0%	60.9%	84.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	69.7%	60.9%	84.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	69.7%	60.9%	84.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	72.3%	89.3%	69.7%	60.9%	84.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	69.7%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	69.7%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	69.7%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	69.7%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	69.7%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	81.0%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	81.0%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	83.5%	89.3%	81.0%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	78.9%	89.3%	81.0%	63.1%	84.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	78.9%	89.3%	81.0%	63.1%	84.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	69.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗