KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

88%

81%

77%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.0¢Risks 43.50u

WN2NO 13.0¢Risks 6.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +6.50u · WN2 −6.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	75.1%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	87.5%	—	—	50.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	3.1%	72.5%	8.2%	—	36.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	69.6%	79.0%	47.8%	—	31.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	41.7%	69.1%	53.8%	9.0%	40.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	46.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	34.5%	34.5%	57.1%	—	44.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	31.5%	16.2%	51.7%	—	46.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	23.3%	6.4%	—	—	42.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	72.4%	64.6%	54.4%	—	37.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	62.4%	64.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	73.4%	52.8%	79.7%	—	30.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	84.1%	65.7%	—	—	27.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	2.4%	57.7%	79.7%	—	36.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	92.7%	51.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	81.0%	45.9%	29.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	79.5%	82.4%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	89.1%	94.1%	92.3%	—	55.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	88.8%	72.4%	4.2%	—	53.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	95.2%	90.0%	89.0%	71.0%	57.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	94.2%	96.3%	92.6%	—	71.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	91.5%	97.7%	91.0%	79.2%	74.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	86.5%	99.5%	94.4%	—	77.2%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	88.7%	99.8%	89.9%	84.3%	81.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	93.8%	99.7%	89.6%	—	87.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	97.5%	99.9%	97.1%	95.6%	88.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	99.6%	96.6%	—	80.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	97.6%	99.6%	96.3%	94.3%	86.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	98.9%	99.5%	97.7%	—	93.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.0°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	73.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	73.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	72.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗