KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

88%

81%

77%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.0¢Risks 43.50u

WN2NO 13.0¢Risks 6.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +6.50u · WN2 −6.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	69.4%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	73.1%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	73.1%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	73.1%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	73.1%	93.7%	65.0%	23.3%	80.4%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	73.1%	93.7%	65.0%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	73.1%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	73.1%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	73.1%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	63.3%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	63.3%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	63.3%	94.2%	64.1%	67.5%	80.4%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	69.9%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	69.9%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	69.9%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	71.6%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	71.6%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	81.4%	97.9%	71.6%	67.6%	87.0%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	85.0%	97.9%	71.6%	81.3%	92.9%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	85.0%	97.9%	71.6%	81.3%	92.9%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	85.0%	97.9%	71.6%	81.3%	92.9%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	85.0%	97.9%	71.6%	81.3%	92.9%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	85.0%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.9%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	85.0%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	85.0%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	85.0%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	87.6%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	87.6%	96.9%	77.1%	81.3%	92.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.0°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	73.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	73.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	72.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗