KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

75%

75%

75%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.8¢Risks 40.88u

HRESNO 18.2¢Risks 9.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.12u · HRES −9.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	99.9%	—	—	43.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	26.4%	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	28.4%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	25.4%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	49.3%	91.3%	8.2%	63.1%	41.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	58.7%	0.3%	74.6%	—	45.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	45.4%	69.1%	72.4%	—	53.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	62.5%	61.0%	35.9%	—	57.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	56.6%	61.5%	87.5%	—	46.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	58.5%	10.7%	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	96.1%	82.2%	—	66.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	10.8%	93.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	74.9%	—	54.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	4.0%	50.9%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	72.9%	99.3%	67.0%	—	72.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	82.3%	95.1%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	83.0%	99.1%	82.4%	0.2%	67.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	95.8%	78.7%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	94.7%	98.6%	93.8%	0.2%	77.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	90.3%	95.5%	4.8%	—	86.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	89.0%	99.5%	94.9%	—	91.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	93.8%	99.9%	93.4%	—	93.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	92.5%	98.0%	97.4%	85.6%	93.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	91.8%	100.0%	96.5%	—	89.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	92.1%	99.9%	96.8%	84.3%	83.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	93.3%	91.3%	93.3%	—	81.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.8%	88.5%	91.1%	68.2%	86.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	87.2%	93.0%	86.4%	—	81.9%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	75.0%	96.6%	60.9%	68.3%	50.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	51.6%	80.8%	45.1%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	73.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗