KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

75%

75%

75%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.8¢Risks 40.88u

HRESNO 18.2¢Risks 9.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.12u · HRES −9.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	58.6%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	58.6%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	58.6%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T15:12:03+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	—
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	43.3%	42.9%	65.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	50.8%	42.9%	65.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	50.8%	42.9%	65.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	55.1%	75.9%	50.8%	42.9%	65.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	50.8%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	50.8%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	50.8%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	50.8%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	50.8%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	42.1%	75.9%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	67.9%	81.5%	78.7%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	67.9%	81.5%	73.9%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	65.6%	81.5%	73.9%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	65.6%	81.5%	73.9%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	40.0%	71.8%	65.6%	81.5%	73.9%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	35.5%	71.8%	65.6%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	35.5%	71.8%	65.6%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	35.5%	71.8%	65.6%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	35.5%	71.8%	65.6%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	35.5%	71.8%	65.6%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	35.5%	75.5%	72.0%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	35.5%	75.5%	72.0%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	35.5%	75.5%	72.0%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	67.3%	75.5%	72.0%	67.9%	73.9%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	67.3%	79.6%	72.0%	67.9%	73.8%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	85.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	85.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	85.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	86.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	86.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	86.0%	76.2%	86.9%	72.6%	64.4%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	82.1%	76.2%	86.9%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	82.1%	76.2%	86.9%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	82.1%	76.2%	86.9%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	82.1%	76.2%	86.9%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	82.1%	76.2%	86.9%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	82.1%	89.0%	80.8%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	82.1%	89.0%	80.8%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	82.1%	89.0%	80.8%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	86.9%	89.0%	80.8%	50.7%	86.6%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	86.9%	89.0%	80.8%	50.5%	86.7%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	69.2%	92.7%	83.4%	65.3%	69.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	69.2%	92.7%	83.4%	65.3%	69.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	69.2%	92.7%	83.4%	65.3%	69.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	69.2%	92.7%	83.4%	65.3%	69.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	69.2%	92.7%	83.4%	65.3%	69.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	70.9%	92.7%	83.4%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	70.9%	92.7%	83.4%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	70.9%	92.7%	83.4%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	70.9%	92.7%	83.4%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	70.9%	92.7%	83.4%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	70.9%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	70.9%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	70.9%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	78.8%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	79.5%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	79.5%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	79.5%	73.6%	79.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	60.0%	90.0%	79.5%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	60.0%	90.0%	79.5%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	60.0%	90.0%	79.5%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	60.0%	90.0%	79.5%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	60.0%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	60.0%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	60.0%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	60.0%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	75.1%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	75.1%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	75.1%	88.6%	74.9%	74.9%	79.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	73.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗