KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

28%

26%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.05u · ICON −74.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	6.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	4.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	14.1%	61.8%	0.7%	23.5%	10.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	18.9%	0.0%	33.0%	—	11.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	10.3%	25.8%	28.9%	—	14.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	18.9%	17.9%	5.9%	—	15.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	13.8%	16.8%	45.8%	—	9.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	14.2%	0.6%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	67.0%	34.6%	—	18.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	55.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	23.7%	—	10.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.1%	8.1%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	19.7%	83.5%	15.3%	—	19.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	28.2%	56.0%	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.6%	78.8%	26.8%	0.0%	13.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	55.3%	21.3%	—	—	19.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	48.9%	70.8%	45.6%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	34.6%	50.0%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	30.0%	78.5%	45.4%	—	34.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	39.3%	89.8%	38.1%	—	39.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	33.1%	57.4%	52.5%	20.8%	36.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	29.1%	93.6%	44.9%	—	24.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	27.3%	86.6%	43.3%	15.7%	14.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	27.6%	23.2%	27.6%	—	11.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	10.2%	16.3%	20.2%	4.4%	13.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	12.8%	21.3%	12.0%	—	8.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.4%	29.0%	1.8%	2.9%	0.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	5.3%	0.4%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	76.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	75.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	74.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	74.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	70.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗