KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

28%

26%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.05u · ICON −74.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	30.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	30.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	30.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	34.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	34.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	34.1%	38.7%	31.3%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	28.6%	36.5%	34.1%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	28.6%	36.5%	34.1%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	28.6%	36.5%	34.1%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	28.6%	36.5%	34.1%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	28.6%	36.9%	31.4%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	28.6%	36.9%	31.4%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	28.6%	36.9%	31.4%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	28.6%	36.9%	31.4%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	33.6%	36.9%	31.4%	39.6%	43.3%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	31.4%	42.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	31.4%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	31.4%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00	33.6%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	35.3%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	25.9%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00	35.3%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	25.9%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00	35.3%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	25.9%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00	35.3%	37.0%	36.6%	39.5%	25.9%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00	35.3%	37.0%	36.6%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	35.3%	27.0%	39.9%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	35.3%	27.0%	39.9%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00	35.3%	27.0%	39.9%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00	51.9%	27.0%	39.9%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	51.9%	27.0%	39.9%	53.8%	25.9%
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	23.0%	43.7%	18.4%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	23.0%	43.7%	18.4%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	36.7%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	25.6%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	25.6%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	25.6%	47.4%	27.8%	43.7%	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	76.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	75.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	74.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	74.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	70.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗