KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

40%

32%

25%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 28.4¢Risks 28.40u

ICONNO 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +71.60u · ICON −71.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	97.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.5%	54.9%	0.4%	18.4%	7.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	14.4%	0.0%	26.6%	—	8.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.3%	20.0%	22.8%	—	10.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	14.0%	13.1%	3.9%	—	11.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	9.7%	12.0%	37.7%	—	6.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	9.9%	0.3%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	58.7%	26.9%	—	13.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.2%	46.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	17.2%	—	6.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	5.1%	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	76.8%	10.2%	—	13.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	20.4%	46.0%	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	19.7%	70.6%	19.0%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	44.7%	14.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	38.2%	60.8%	35.1%	0.0%	12.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	24.9%	38.9%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	20.7%	69.0%	34.1%	—	24.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	28.3%	83.3%	27.3%	—	28.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	22.7%	45.0%	40.1%	13.0%	25.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	19.1%	88.5%	32.5%	—	15.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.3%	78.0%	30.7%	8.9%	8.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	13.9%	17.3%	—	6.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.1%	8.9%	11.5%	1.9%	7.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.5%	12.0%	6.0%	—	4.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	17.1%	0.6%	1.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	74%	78.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	76.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	76.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	75.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	73.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗