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KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
43%
AIFS
40%
EPS
32%
WN2
25%
ICON
14%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 28.4¢Risks 28.40u
VS
ICONNO 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +71.60u · ICON −71.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.5% · 2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.5% · 2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.4% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.4% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.7% · 2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.9% · 2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 44.3% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:0009-16 03:3609-16 09:3709-16 14:54
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:0042.5%17.5%29.4%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:0042.5%17.5%29.4%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:0042.5%17.5%37.7%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:0042.5%17.5%37.7%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:0042.5%17.5%37.7%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:0042.5%17.5%37.7%44.3%17.6%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:0032.3%17.5%37.7%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:0032.3%17.5%37.7%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:0032.3%17.5%37.7%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:0032.3%17.5%37.7%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:0032.3%31.4%24.9%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:0032.3%31.4%24.9%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:0032.3%31.4%24.9%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:0032.3%31.4%24.9%42.6%14.3%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:0039.5%31.5%24.9%42.6%14.2%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:0039.5%31.5%24.9%42.6%14.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend74%78.9°F2.2°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.1°F2026-09-16 02:00Pending
IFS HRES43%76.8°F3.8°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single40%76.4°F4.1°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%76.0°F3.1°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%75.2°F3.4°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
ICON14%73.7°F3.5°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗