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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 19:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
11%
EPS
8%
AIFS
3%
HRES
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.2¢Risks 1.54u
VS
WN2NO 93.8¢Risks 23.46u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.46u · WN2 −23.46u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.8% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.6% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:0009-03 12:0009-11 06:0009-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:000.9%————10.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:001.8%————9.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:000.8%————5.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:0024.8%————5.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:004.3%————3.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:005.1%————3.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:003.6%————2.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:001.1%————1.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.6%————1.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:000.5%————1.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:000.2%————1.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.2%———
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:006.4%————2.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.9%—0.6%———
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——0.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:000.5%—17.6%———
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.2%—39.7%—2.5%0.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.6%—19.8%———
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.0%——2.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:007.6%—0.4%———
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:006.0%—4.9%0.2%—3.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:008.3%—9.8%———
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:002.8%—3.2%7.6%—0.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:002.0%—9.5%———
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%—9.0%1.3%—0.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%—1.1%———
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%—4.1%4.1%—0.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.1%———
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%——1.1%—0.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.1%—33.0%2.5%—0.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.0%———
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON11%76.7°F4.7°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
National Blend8%71.7°F7.9°F2026-09-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%76.1°F4.5°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%73.8°F4.7°F2026-09-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES2%72.3°F5.1°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%73.0°F4.5°F2026-09-14 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%73.7°F3.9°F2026-09-14 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 13:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗