KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 19:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.2¢Risks 1.54u

WN2NO 93.8¢Risks 23.46u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.46u · WN2 −23.46u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	22.8%	0.8%	3.5%	7.8%	2.3%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	22.9%	1.2%	3.5%	7.9%	2.4%
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	3.5%	7.9%	2.4%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	3.5%	7.9%	2.4%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	3.5%	7.9%	—
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	6.3%	7.9%	—
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	6.3%	7.9%	—
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	22.9%	0.8%	6.3%	7.9%	—
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	6.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	6.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	6.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	6.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	6.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	20.7%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	20.7%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	20.7%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	9.3%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	20.0%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	20.0%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	27.5%	0.9%	20.0%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	20.0%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	20.0%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	20.0%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	20.0%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	20.0%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	12.8%	0.3%	7.9%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	12.8%	0.3%	7.9%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	12.8%	0.3%	7.9%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	7.9%	0.3%	13.7%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	7.9%	1.6%	13.6%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	7.9%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	7.9%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	7.9%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	10.9%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	13.6%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	3.1%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	2.3%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	3.1%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	2.3%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	3.1%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	2.3%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	3.1%	0.5%	8.6%	0.3%	2.3%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	3.1%	0.5%	8.6%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	3.1%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	3.1%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	3.1%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	4.2%	7.7%	3.1%	0.8%	0.4%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	4.2%	7.7%	3.1%	0.8%	0.4%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	4.2%	7.7%	3.1%	0.8%	0.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	3.3%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	10.8%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	3.2%	8.2%	8.4%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	8.4%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	8.4%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	8.4%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	1.2%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	1.2%	2.2%	11.1%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	3.2%	7.7%	1.2%	2.2%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	11%	76.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	71.7°F	7.9°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	76.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	73.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	72.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 13:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗