KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

42%

15%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

ICONNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.40u · ICON −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	95.9%	—	65.9%	44.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	73.8%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	79.1%	12.2%	—	33.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	31.7%	66.3%	—	48.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	83.1%	—	41.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	97.3%	55.6%	—	60.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	22.5%	—	43.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.2%	2.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	20.2%	1.6%	35.4%	—	31.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	17.2%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	12.9%	0.4%	49.1%	—	30.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	3.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%	45.1%	—	32.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.0%	0.1%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.3%	0.2%	67.0%	—	32.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	7.6%	0.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	10.4%	0.0%	21.3%	—	30.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	29.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.7%	0.0%	14.7%	0.8%	33.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.9%	0.0%	3.3%	—	19.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	0.0%	4.6%	1.0%	13.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	1.6%	—	10.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%	4.0%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	6.2%	—	5.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	71.6°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	66.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗