KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

42%

15%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

ICONNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.40u · ICON −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00	25.5%	63.5%	65.0%	31.1%	29.9%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00	25.5%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	29.9%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00	25.5%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	29.9%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	25.5%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	29.9%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00	25.5%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	29.9%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	29.0%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	22.4%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00	29.0%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	22.4%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00	29.0%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	22.4%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00	29.0%	63.5%	64.0%	31.1%	22.4%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00	29.0%	63.5%	64.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	29.0%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	29.0%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00	29.0%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	65.0%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	68.7%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	68.7%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	68.7%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00	28.3%	55.3%	68.7%	44.5%	22.4%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	22.9%	55.3%	68.7%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	22.9%	55.3%	68.7%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	22.9%	55.3%	68.7%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	22.9%	55.3%	68.7%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	22.9%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	22.9%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	22.9%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	22.9%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	25.6%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.0%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	25.6%	57.5%	64.9%	45.6%	3.0%
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00	23.9%	59.6%	57.9%	36.8%	7.4%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	23.9%	60.7%	57.9%	36.8%	7.4%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00	23.9%	60.7%	57.9%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	23.9%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00	23.9%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00	23.9%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00	16.0%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	16.0%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	16.0%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	16.0%	60.7%	63.4%	36.8%	2.2%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	16.0%	60.7%	63.4%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00	16.0%	63.0%	57.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00	16.0%	63.0%	57.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00	16.0%	63.0%	57.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00	14.9%	63.0%	57.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	14.9%	63.0%	57.9%	42.3%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	71.6°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	66.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗