KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

75%

73%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.65u · ICON −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	51.1%	54.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	83.6%	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	55.4%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	10.2%	—	61.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	9.0%	64.3%	—	60.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	77.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	14.9%	5.1%	79.4%	—	45.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	55.8%	13.8%	78.7%	—	40.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	13.7%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	11.8%	24.1%	83.3%	—	47.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	39.3%	69.0%	—	—	5.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	17.2%	79.7%	86.1%	—	60.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	51.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	89.8%	79.0%	83.5%	—	62.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	74.3%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	85.5%	80.3%	83.0%	—	64.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	82.4%	76.3%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	81.7%	81.7%	86.9%	—	55.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	70.4%	76.9%	3.3%	—	51.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	79.3%	70.0%	87.3%	58.1%	57.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	80.1%	11.9%	82.5%	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	73.4%	48.8%	74.4%	66.9%	51.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	69.8%	63.9%	80.0%	—	57.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	60.6%	72.7%	79.0%	56.7%	55.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.9%	72.4%	77.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	70.7%	74.4%	82.8%	62.8%	48.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	74.0%	53.0%	74.0%	—	42.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	54.7%	59.4%	60.9%	51.6%	29.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	37.0%	33.9%	37.0%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	69.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗