KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

75%

73%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.65u · ICON −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	80.7%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	80.7%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	82.6%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	82.6%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	82.6%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00	82.2%	80.3%	82.6%	44.6%	68.9%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	74.5%	80.3%	82.6%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	74.5%	80.3%	82.6%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	74.5%	80.3%	82.6%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	74.5%	80.3%	82.6%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	74.5%	91.2%	86.5%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	74.5%	91.2%	86.5%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	74.5%	91.2%	86.5%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	74.5%	91.2%	86.5%	59.3%	19.4%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	77.2%	91.2%	86.5%	59.4%	19.4%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	77.2%	91.2%	86.5%	59.4%	19.4%
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	86.5%	59.4%	19.4%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	86.5%	57.6%	27.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	84.1%	57.6%	27.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	84.1%	57.6%	27.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	84.1%	57.6%	27.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00	77.2%	90.7%	84.1%	57.6%	27.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00	64.1%	90.7%	84.1%	69.5%	27.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	64.1%	90.7%	84.1%	69.5%	27.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00	64.1%	90.7%	84.1%	69.5%	27.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00	64.1%	90.7%	84.1%	69.5%	27.7%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00	64.2%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	64.2%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00	64.2%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	82.2%	73.6%	28.4%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	74.6%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	82.9%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	82.9%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	82.9%	91.7%	87.0%	73.6%	92.6%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	82.9%	91.7%	87.0%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	82.9%	96.4%	86.3%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	82.9%	96.4%	86.3%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	82.9%	96.4%	86.3%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	82.9%	96.4%	86.3%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	80.6%	96.4%	86.3%	73.9%	92.6%
2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	88.3%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	88.3%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	78.6%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	78.6%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	78.6%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	75.9%	97.2%	87.5%	76.1%	78.6%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	69.9%	97.2%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	69.9%	97.2%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	69.9%	97.2%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	69.9%	97.2%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T10:34:39+00:00	69.9%	97.2%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	69.9%	93.6%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	69.9%	93.6%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	69.9%	93.6%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	73.1%	93.6%	87.5%	69.4%	78.6%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	72.3%	93.6%	87.5%	69.4%	78.7%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	56.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	56.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	79.0%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	77.6%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	77.6%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	77.6%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	77.6%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	77.6%	89.4%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	77.6%	83.1%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	77.6%	83.1%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	77.6%	83.1%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	75.3%	83.1%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	75.3%	83.1%	87.4%	73.0%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	69.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗