KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

39%

29%

24%

17%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

AIFSNO 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.75u · AIFS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	48.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	2.9%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	19.4%	—	31.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.3%	57.3%	—	27.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.3%	2.5%	40.9%	—	16.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.1%	0.1%	21.2%	—	14.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.6%	0.6%	31.5%	—	6.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	41.3%	1.9%	21.4%	—	6.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	13.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	16.0%	6.3%	18.4%	—	5.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	0.3%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.8%	0.2%	7.5%	—	2.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	2.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.3%	19.7%	20.4%	—	1.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.3%	16.3%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.7%	9.4%	3.1%	2.1%	0.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.5%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	3.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	0.0%	1.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	71.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	66.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	65.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	65.4°F	5.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗