KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

39%

29%

24%

17%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

AIFSNO 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.75u · AIFS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	21.8%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	21.8%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	21.8%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	33.7%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	33.7%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	30.7%	73.1%	33.7%	43.6%	43.5%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	11.9%	73.1%	33.7%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	11.9%	73.1%	33.7%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	11.9%	73.1%	33.7%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	11.9%	73.1%	33.7%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	11.9%	64.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	11.9%	64.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	11.9%	64.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	11.9%	64.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	17.0%	64.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.5%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	17.0%	64.5%	39.4%	33.6%	23.9%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	17.0%	65.5%	39.4%	28.9%	23.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	71.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	66.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	65.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	65.4°F	5.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗