KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

58%

40%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

ICONNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.45u · ICON −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	85.4%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	29.4%	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	80.1%	20.4%	—	68.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	13.2%	26.0%	83.9%	—	67.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	78.4%	16.9%	88.6%	—	47.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	51.6%	53.2%	75.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	38.5%	63.9%	75.5%	—	38.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	35.8%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	64.6%	80.4%	68.6%	—	38.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	67.4%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	64.4%	84.5%	60.9%	—	36.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	69.1%	78.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	62.4%	86.9%	58.7%	—	35.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	42.0%	77.4%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	38.8%	80.3%	50.0%	—	34.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	24.5%	72.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	29.2%	77.8%	50.0%	—	34.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	16.8%	76.9%	5.4%	—	31.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	13.4%	75.8%	43.0%	0.0%	30.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	13.2%	78.4%	35.9%	—	33.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	8.5%	79.2%	41.3%	68.0%	34.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	8.2%	78.1%	32.5%	—	29.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	7.4%	80.9%	33.1%	70.5%	21.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	14.7%	79.9%	37.7%	—	21.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	13.8%	77.8%	30.5%	72.0%	31.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	19.2%	79.8%	27.2%	—	29.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	22.6%	90.4%	31.7%	68.3%	30.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	59.8%	87.7%	54.9%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	62.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	58.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗