KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

58%

40%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

ICONNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.45u · ICON −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	56.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	56.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	74.3%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	74.3%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	74.3%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	58.0%	95.0%	58.6%	45.9%	74.3%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	58.5%	95.0%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	58.5%	95.0%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	58.5%	95.0%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	58.5%	95.0%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T10:34:39+00:00	58.5%	95.0%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	55.1%	96.3%	58.6%	50.8%	74.3%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	55.1%	96.3%	58.6%	50.8%	74.4%
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	74.4%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	74.4%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	55.1%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	58.5%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	58.5%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	58.5%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	58.5%	96.7%	58.6%	50.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	58.5%	96.7%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	58.5%	96.3%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	56.8%	96.3%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	56.8%	96.3%	58.6%	44.5%	73.7%
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	5.4%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	5.4%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	5.4%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	6.1%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	6.1%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	6.1%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	57.8%	63.0%	58.5%	39.5%	6.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	62.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	58.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗