KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

37%

23%

17%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

AIFSNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.75u · AIFS −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	34.9%	2.0%	—	23.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.8%	2.7%	38.5%	—	20.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	28.9%	1.1%	44.7%	—	8.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	8.7%	9.3%	23.6%	—	8.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.9%	13.4%	21.9%	—	3.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.1%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	24.8%	14.6%	—	3.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	13.0%	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	10.6%	27.4%	9.0%	—	2.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	12.2%	19.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	27.9%	6.8%	—	1.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.5%	15.8%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	17.0%	3.5%	—	1.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	10.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	12.5%	2.8%	—	1.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	10.7%	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	9.0%	1.3%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	9.2%	0.7%	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	8.5%	0.8%	4.3%	0.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	6.8%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.0%	0.3%	3.5%	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	5.4%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	0.1%	2.5%	0.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.1%	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	4.1%	0.3%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	70.8°F	6.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	69.4°F	3.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	65.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	64.4°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗