KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

37%

23%

17%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

AIFSNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.75u · AIFS −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:18+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	36.0%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	36.0%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	37.6%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	37.6%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	37.6%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00	15.6%	51.2%	37.6%	17.9%	29.8%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	7.8%	51.2%	37.6%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	7.8%	51.2%	37.6%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	7.8%	51.2%	37.6%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	7.8%	51.2%	37.6%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	7.8%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	7.8%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	7.8%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	7.8%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.4%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.3%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	28.8%	16.0%	52.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	28.8%	22.2%	51.8%
2026-09-16T17:10:21+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	22.3%	22.2%	51.8%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	22.3%	22.2%	51.8%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	22.3%	22.2%	51.8%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00	8.3%	35.8%	22.3%	22.2%	51.8%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00	9.5%	35.8%	22.3%	28.1%	51.8%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	9.5%	35.8%	22.3%	28.1%	51.8%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00	9.5%	35.8%	22.3%	28.1%	51.8%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00	9.5%	35.8%	22.3%	28.1%	51.8%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00	12.7%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00	12.7%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00	12.7%	36.9%	16.8%	22.6%	51.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	70.8°F	6.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	69.4°F	3.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	65.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	64.4°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗