KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 16 · 02:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

23%

22%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.1¢Risks 9.03u

AIFSNO 82.0¢Risks 40.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.98u · AIFS −40.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	35.9%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	1.9%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	23.0%	0.8%	—	13.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	1.1%	25.4%	—	11.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	17.4%	0.4%	30.3%	—	3.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.9%	4.3%	13.1%	—	3.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	6.3%	11.6%	—	1.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.4%	13.1%	6.8%	—	1.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.7%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.3%	14.4%	3.6%	—	0.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	8.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.0%	14.2%	2.4%	—	0.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	6.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	7.1%	1.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.5%	0.7%	—	0.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	70.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	65.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	68.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	64.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	64.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗