KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 16 · 02:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

23%

22%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.1¢Risks 9.03u

AIFSNO 82.0¢Risks 40.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.98u · AIFS −40.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	16.3%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	16.3%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	16.3%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	16.3%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	17.9%	41.1%	23.8%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	17.9%	41.1%	23.8%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	17.9%	41.1%	23.8%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	17.9%	41.1%	23.8%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	19.4%	41.1%	23.8%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	18.9%	41.1%	23.8%	37.8%	23.4%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	23.8%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	23.8%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00	18.9%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.4%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	6.7%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00	6.7%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00	6.7%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00	6.7%	42.3%	22.5%	34.4%	23.1%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00	6.7%	42.3%	22.5%	10.7%	23.1%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	6.7%	27.6%	21.8%	10.7%	23.1%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	6.7%	27.6%	21.8%	10.7%	23.1%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00	6.7%	27.6%	21.8%	10.7%	23.1%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00	8.5%	27.6%	21.8%	10.7%	23.1%
2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00	8.5%	27.6%	21.8%	10.7%	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	70.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	65.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	68.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	64.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	64.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗