KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

72%

68%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.20u

ICONNO 37.8¢Risks 37.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.80u · ICON −37.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	12.6%	—	—	78.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	43.7%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	90.7%	98.9%	34.9%	—	65.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	62.9%	87.2%	81.1%	—	60.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	69.7%	28.3%	81.6%	—	48.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	58.7%	87.7%	76.4%	—	47.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	54.2%	92.6%	67.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	36.6%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	42.2%	94.6%	43.9%	—	49.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	36.8%	93.2%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	39.1%	91.0%	42.7%	—	50.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	30.1%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	23.2%	91.8%	51.0%	—	53.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	36.3%	92.7%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	36.9%	91.4%	58.2%	—	53.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	33.5%	93.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	37.1%	92.7%	54.4%	0.0%	54.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	35.7%	91.7%	0.4%	—	52.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	37.4%	93.9%	63.7%	—	47.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	42.8%	93.8%	78.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	58.7%	94.5%	74.4%	75.4%	57.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	53.9%	96.8%	65.1%	—	55.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	54.0%	97.4%	74.9%	76.0%	58.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	80.9%	96.3%	84.5%	—	66.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	84.6%	97.7%	89.2%	86.2%	73.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	78.7%	98.5%	88.8%	—	75.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	81.9%	98.9%	87.5%	89.8%	77.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	95.9%	98.6%	94.7%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	66.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.3°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	64.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
ICON	38%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗