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KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
87%
WN2
81%
EPS
72%
HRES
68%
ICON
38%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.20u
VS
ICONNO 37.8¢Risks 37.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.80u · ICON −37.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.1% · 2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00IFS HRES: 67.5% · 2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:0009-22 15:3209-22 21:3309-23 02:49
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%42.2%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%42.2%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:0079.8%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:0084.3%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:0084.3%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:0084.3%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:0084.3%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:0084.3%78.7%67.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:0084.3%71.9%81.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:0084.3%71.9%81.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:0084.3%71.9%81.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:0086.6%71.9%81.1%67.5%37.8%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:0086.6%71.9%81.1%67.5%37.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single87%68.0°F4.1°F2026-09-22 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%66.5°F3.4°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%65.3°F3.1°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
IFS HRES68%65.2°F3.8°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
National Blend57%64.0°F2.8°F2026-09-22 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.1°F2026-09-22 14:00Pending
ICON38%62.4°F3.5°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗