KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

24%

24%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.2¢Risks 10.62u

AIFSNO 78.8¢Risks 39.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.38u · AIFS −39.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.5%	93.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	77.0%	71.4%	1.3%	—	23.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	20.4%	70.9%	62.3%	—	19.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	23.4%	64.2%	44.7%	—	15.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	9.0%	40.5%	19.5%	—	14.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.7%	33.0%	3.6%	—	11.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.0%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.4%	43.0%	7.3%	—	10.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.1%	44.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.3%	16.6%	4.8%	—	5.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.8%	5.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	0.1%	4.0%	—	7.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	0.1%	7.1%	—	4.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.2%	27.9%	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	1.2%	1.4%	44.5%	7.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.6%	14.8%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.1%	0.3%	0.7%	24.2%	2.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	19.1%	—	3.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.3%	1.6%	9.5%	9.5%	0.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.6%	0.2%	3.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	1.3%	1.9%	14.9%	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	16.4%	4.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.4%	0.1%	3.2%	10.2%	1.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.4%	0.1%	2.9%	—	4.4%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	0.4%	7.7%	21.4%	1.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	4.1%	4.5%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	68.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	66.3°F	5.9°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	66.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗