KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

24%

24%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.2¢Risks 10.62u

AIFSNO 78.8¢Risks 39.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.38u · AIFS −39.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	80.2%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	80.2%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	36.6%	42.3%	30.0%	28.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	11.9%	42.3%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	11.9%	42.3%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	11.9%	42.3%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	11.9%	42.3%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T10:34:40+00:00	11.9%	42.3%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	11.9%	26.7%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	11.9%	26.7%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	11.9%	26.7%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	12.2%	26.7%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	12.2%	26.7%	30.0%	22.1%	42.4%
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	46.5%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	46.5%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	22.7%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	22.7%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	22.7%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	35.4%	26.7%	30.0%	25.8%	22.7%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	15.7%	26.7%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	15.7%	26.7%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	15.7%	26.7%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	15.7%	26.7%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	15.7%	26.7%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	15.2%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	23.8%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	23.8%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	23.8%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	15.1%	33.4%	30.0%	11.2%	23.8%
2026-09-19T19:43:44+00:00	12.9%	33.4%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	12.9%	33.4%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	12.9%	33.4%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	12.9%	33.4%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	12.9%	33.4%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	12.9%	25.2%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	12.9%	25.2%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	12.9%	25.2%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	12.5%	25.2%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	12.5%	25.2%	30.0%	23.6%	23.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	68.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	66.3°F	5.9°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	66.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗