KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

82%

82%

80%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 43.60u

EPSNO 12.8¢Risks 6.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +6.40u · EPS −6.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	83.6%	—	—	64.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	87.7%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	1.6%	92.0%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	81.6%	78.1%	19.9%	—	57.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	60.8%	91.3%	74.6%	—	61.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	78.4%	56.1%	64.9%	—	71.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	37.5%	53.2%	83.2%	—	57.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	59.1%	22.5%	63.9%	—	53.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	47.4%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	59.6%	2.4%	50.0%	—	57.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	72.1%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	66.1%	3.0%	73.4%	—	58.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	83.5%	60.3%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	79.7%	45.1%	82.3%	—	61.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	78.9%	58.9%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	77.3%	67.9%	62.2%	—	60.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	73.0%	82.4%	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	75.3%	83.1%	25.5%	—	71.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	85.2%	82.5%	1.3%	—	71.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	85.3%	21.5%	63.7%	86.0%	71.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	84.0%	79.2%	40.5%	—	70.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	72.4%	88.2%	53.7%	0.2%	81.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	81.8%	96.5%	41.0%	—	85.7%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	88.7%	88.0%	55.4%	1.9%	82.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	84.5%	90.8%	35.0%	—	79.9%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	89.8%	90.5%	64.2%	89.2%	84.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	84.7%	86.4%	64.8%	—	88.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	69.7%	87.5%	79.7%	88.3%	80.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	93.2%	95.1%	78.5%	—	80.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗