KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

82%

82%

80%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 43.60u

EPSNO 12.8¢Risks 6.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +6.40u · EPS −6.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	75.0%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	75.0%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	75.0%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	84.2%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	84.2%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	84.2%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	84.9%	73.3%	71.3%	75.6%	84.2%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	88.7%	73.3%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	88.7%	73.3%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	88.7%	73.3%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	88.7%	73.3%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	88.7%	78.2%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	88.7%	78.2%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	88.7%	78.2%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	88.7%	78.2%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	89.9%	78.2%	71.3%	73.9%	84.2%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	89.9%	78.2%	71.2%	74.0%	83.6%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	74.0%	80.2%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	74.0%	80.2%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	78.8%	71.5%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	78.8%	71.5%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	78.8%	71.5%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	87.8%	72.0%	92.8%	78.8%	71.5%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	84.2%	72.0%	92.8%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	84.2%	72.0%	92.8%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	84.2%	72.0%	92.8%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	84.2%	72.0%	92.8%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	84.2%	80.4%	93.3%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	84.2%	80.4%	93.3%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	84.2%	80.4%	93.3%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	84.2%	80.4%	93.3%	82.2%	71.5%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	85.4%	80.3%	93.3%	82.2%	72.5%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	85.4%	80.3%	93.3%	82.2%	72.5%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	85.4%	79.4%	93.3%	82.2%	72.5%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	85.4%	79.4%	93.3%	82.2%	72.5%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	85.4%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	85.4%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	85.4%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	84.8%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	84.8%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	84.8%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	84.8%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	84.8%	79.4%	93.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	84.8%	80.4%	94.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	84.8%	80.4%	94.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	84.8%	80.4%	94.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	84.8%	80.4%	94.0%	82.2%	81.8%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	84.8%	80.4%	94.0%	82.2%	81.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗