KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

86%

79%

29%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

ICONNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · ICON −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	84.0%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.0%	89.2%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	76.5%	72.5%	15.3%	—	50.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	53.6%	88.0%	68.3%	—	54.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	72.4%	48.5%	57.6%	—	64.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	30.1%	45.2%	77.6%	—	49.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	50.8%	16.8%	55.8%	—	45.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	39.0%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	50.9%	1.4%	41.3%	—	48.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	64.1%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	57.3%	1.8%	65.3%	—	49.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	76.9%	50.9%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	72.1%	35.7%	75.3%	—	51.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	70.9%	49.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	68.8%	58.2%	52.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.5%	74.7%	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	65.9%	75.3%	17.6%	—	61.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	77.7%	74.2%	0.6%	—	61.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	77.6%	14.0%	52.3%	78.5%	60.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	75.6%	69.6%	29.3%	—	59.5%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.1%	80.9%	41.3%	0.1%	72.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	72.0%	93.2%	29.1%	—	77.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	80.9%	80.0%	42.0%	0.8%	72.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	74.7%	83.6%	23.2%	—	68.8%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.8%	82.8%	50.0%	80.9%	74.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	74.0%	76.4%	50.0%	—	79.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	54.7%	77.4%	66.8%	78.6%	68.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	85.9%	89.3%	64.5%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	72.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	70.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
ICON	29%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗