KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

86%

79%

29%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

ICONNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · ICON −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	76.4%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	76.4%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	85.3%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	82.5%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	82.5%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	82.5%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	82.5%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	82.5%	66.5%	64.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	82.5%	59.5%	88.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	82.5%	59.5%	88.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	82.5%	59.5%	88.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	82.5%	59.5%	88.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	82.5%	59.5%	88.3%	66.3%	72.3%
2026-09-24T02:56:31+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	89.9%	75.2%	73.4%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	89.9%	75.2%	73.4%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	89.9%	75.2%	73.4%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	90.8%	75.2%	45.5%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	90.8%	75.2%	45.5%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	90.8%	75.2%	45.5%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	78.5%	69.6%	90.8%	75.2%	45.5%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	84.9%	69.6%	90.8%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	84.9%	69.6%	90.8%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	84.9%	69.6%	90.8%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	84.9%	69.6%	90.8%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	84.9%	75.4%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	84.9%	75.4%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	84.9%	75.4%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	84.9%	75.4%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	89.1%	75.2%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	89.1%	75.2%	93.7%	79.6%	45.5%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	95.2%	79.4%	96.6%	85.7%	29.0%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	95.2%	79.4%	96.6%	85.7%	29.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	72.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	70.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
ICON	29%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗