KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

52%

50%

30%

22%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.90u · ICON −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	57.5%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	63.4%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	71.2%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	50.7%	45.8%	4.2%	—	24.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	26.0%	67.0%	39.9%	—	26.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	43.2%	21.1%	28.3%	—	34.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	9.3%	17.9%	48.4%	—	20.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	20.7%	3.6%	24.5%	—	16.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	12.8%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	19.6%	0.1%	13.6%	—	17.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	29.4%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	23.0%	0.1%	29.7%	—	17.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	41.5%	17.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	34.8%	9.0%	38.5%	—	17.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	32.6%	15.2%	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	29.4%	20.4%	16.3%	—	15.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	23.6%	34.5%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	24.7%	34.1%	2.1%	—	21.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	35.7%	31.5%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	34.1%	1.2%	13.4%	35.2%	18.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	30.4%	24.4%	4.0%	—	16.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	16.6%	35.4%	7.1%	0.0%	25.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	23.8%	57.7%	3.2%	—	29.1%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	31.9%	30.7%	6.1%	0.0%	23.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	23.2%	33.8%	1.7%	—	18.2%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	29.3%	30.5%	7.3%	28.0%	21.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	19.2%	21.3%	6.5%	—	24.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	7.1%	20.3%	12.5%	21.4%	13.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	28.1%	33.9%	9.9%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	73.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	72.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗