KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

52%

50%

30%

22%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.90u · ICON −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	66.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	66.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	48.2%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	48.2%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	48.2%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	38.7%	30.3%	34.0%	35.6%	48.2%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	29.3%	30.3%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	29.3%	30.3%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	29.3%	30.3%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	29.3%	30.3%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	29.3%	30.3%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	29.3%	25.7%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	29.3%	25.7%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	29.3%	25.7%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.0%	37.0%	48.2%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	48.3%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	48.3%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	48.3%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	63.2%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	63.2%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	63.2%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	32.6%	25.7%	34.1%	37.0%	63.2%
2026-09-19T19:43:44+00:00	27.4%	25.7%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	27.4%	25.7%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	27.4%	25.7%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	27.4%	25.7%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	27.4%	25.7%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	27.4%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	27.4%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	27.4%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	63.2%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	32.6%	18.6%	34.1%	48.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	29.3%	18.6%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	29.3%	18.6%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	29.3%	18.6%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	29.3%	18.6%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	29.3%	18.6%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	29.3%	29.7%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	29.3%	29.7%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	29.3%	29.7%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	31.4%	29.7%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	31.4%	29.7%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T15:18:52+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	23.2%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	31.4%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	35.0%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	35.0%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	35.0%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	35.0%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	35.0%	28.1%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	35.1%	22.7%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	35.1%	22.7%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	35.1%	22.7%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	32.8%	22.7%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	32.8%	22.7%	34.1%	37.2%	39.3%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	63.8%	40.5%	10.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	63.8%	40.5%	10.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	10.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	10.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	10.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	22.2%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	22.2%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	22.2%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	40.5%	22.2%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	59.7%	28.6%	64.9%	50.0%	22.2%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	59.7%	29.8%	66.0%	50.0%	22.2%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	59.7%	29.8%	66.0%	50.0%	22.2%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	59.7%	29.8%	66.0%	50.0%	22.2%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	52.0%	29.8%	66.0%	50.0%	22.2%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	52.0%	29.8%	66.0%	50.0%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	73.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	72.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗