KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 5.7¢Risks 2.85u

EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 47.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.15u · EPS −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	14.2%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	21.3%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	6.5%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	15.2%	4.2%	—	1.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.4%	1.0%	1.8%	—	2.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	5.1%	—	0.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.9%	—	0.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.9%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	0.1%	1.2%	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	11%	72.2°F	6.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-19 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	70.3°F	6.6°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗