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KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
11%
HRES
6%
WN2
2%
AIFS
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.7¢Risks 2.85u
VS
EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 47.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.15u · EPS −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:0009-19 07:3909-19 09:1009-19 10:40
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:002.0%0.2%2.4%6.2%11.2%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:002.0%0.2%2.4%6.2%11.2%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:002.0%0.2%2.4%6.2%11.2%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:002.0%0.2%2.4%6.2%11.2%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:002.0%0.2%2.4%6.2%11.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON11%72.2°F6.8°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast10%73.0°F5.8°F2026-09-19 02:00Pending
IFS HRES6%70.3°F6.6°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
National Blend4%73.0°F4.4°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%70.4°F5.1°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%69.6°F5.3°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%70.8°F3.3°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗