KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

41%

26%

11%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.15u · ICON −61.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	15.4%	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	75.6%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	5.0%	89.8%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	50.7%	58.4%	6.5%	—	51.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	16.1%	7.6%	27.2%	—	26.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	3.0%	13.8%	5.0%	—	19.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	3.0%	12.7%	18.4%	—	16.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	2.7%	13.4%	8.3%	—	13.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	16.7%	25.3%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	8.0%	35.4%	—	9.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	44.6%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.9%	3.2%	40.0%	—	4.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	37.0%	17.7%	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	9.4%	2.9%	11.6%	—	6.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	2.1%	42.0%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.3%	1.1%	16.3%	—	9.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.6%	15.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.3%	30.1%	52.2%	—	3.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	41.0%	1.6%	—	3.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.9%	1.1%	23.3%	—	3.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.7%	0.5%	7.8%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	15.1%	0.3%	11.8%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	1.3%	—	2.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	72.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	66.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	63.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗