KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

41%

26%

11%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.15u · ICON −61.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	71.4%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	70.7%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	70.7%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	70.7%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	70.7%	43.3%	63.0%	33.1%	11.3%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	70.7%	43.3%	63.0%	26.3%	11.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	70.7%	40.9%	63.0%	26.3%	11.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	70.7%	40.9%	63.0%	26.3%	11.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	70.7%	40.9%	63.0%	26.3%	11.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	66.4%	40.9%	63.0%	26.3%	11.3%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	66.5%	40.9%	62.9%	26.3%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	72.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	66.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	63.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗