KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

55%

33%

19%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

ICONNO 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.40u · ICON −57.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	5.6%	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	53.2%	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	1.5%	—	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	12.6%	72.5%	3.3%	—	31.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	9.6%	26.6%	22.1%	—	27.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	27.7%	53.8%	73.6%	—	38.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	54.8%	32.3%	28.1%	—	50.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	4.3%	13.8%	30.0%	—	46.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	0.7%	23.3%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	2.7%	24.1%	33.8%	—	21.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	29.4%	25.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	3.6%	29.7%	33.0%	—	11.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	3.8%	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	6.2%	11.1%	45.1%	—	21.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	3.8%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	8.6%	52.1%	7.1%	—	12.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	3.5%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	14.9%	4.0%	—	14.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	18.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	33.1%	18.3%	8.1%	—	27.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	48.8%	1.0%	5.8%	—	26.3%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	28.7%	16.6%	4.3%	0.0%	30.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	44.9%	36.1%	7.2%	—	38.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	35.6%	16.5%	6.1%	5.3%	38.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	30.0%	21.1%	16.4%	—	30.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	34.5%	12.2%	8.9%	3.2%	23.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	45.5%	42.5%	11.2%	—	39.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	19.2%	39.1%	2.4%	7.7%	34.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	19.2%	35.5%	2.8%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	73.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	68.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗