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KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
66%
AIFS
63%
EPS
55%
HRES
33%
ICON
19%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.60u
VS
ICONNO 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.40u · ICON −57.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.5% · 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.5% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.5% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.5% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.5% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:0009-20 07:4509-20 09:1609-20 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:0063.4%55.0%66.5%32.6%18.7%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:0063.4%55.0%66.5%32.6%18.7%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:0063.4%55.0%66.5%32.6%18.7%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:0063.4%55.0%66.5%32.6%18.7%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:0063.4%55.0%66.5%32.6%18.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 266%73.9°F5.6°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single63%73.4°F5.5°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%72.0°F4.0°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%72.0°F4.4°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%68.7°F6.2°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
ICON19%62.8°F9.8°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗