KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

45%

34%

30%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.35u · EPS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	46.8%	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	1.0%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	9.3%	66.4%	2.2%	—	25.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	6.9%	21.0%	17.0%	—	22.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	21.6%	46.2%	67.0%	—	31.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	46.8%	25.5%	21.8%	—	42.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	2.7%	9.7%	23.2%	—	38.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.4%	17.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	1.6%	17.8%	26.2%	—	15.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	22.2%	19.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	2.1%	22.3%	25.1%	—	7.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.2%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	3.8%	7.2%	35.7%	—	14.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	2.1%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.2%	41.8%	4.2%	—	8.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.9%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.7%	9.4%	2.1%	—	9.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.1%	11.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	23.3%	11.6%	4.5%	—	18.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	37.0%	0.4%	3.1%	—	17.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	19.1%	10.0%	2.1%	0.0%	20.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	32.5%	24.8%	3.7%	—	26.9%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	24.0%	9.5%	3.0%	2.6%	26.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	19.1%	12.4%	9.2%	—	19.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	22.2%	6.3%	4.4%	1.3%	13.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	31.1%	28.5%	5.6%	—	26.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	10.2%	25.0%	0.9%	3.4%	21.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.9%	21.6%	1.0%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
ICON	45%	71.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	69.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	69.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗