KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

45%

34%

30%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.35u · EPS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	36.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	36.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	67.4%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	42.5%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	42.5%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	42.5%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	42.5%	28.3%	59.8%	49.4%	23.7%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	42.5%	28.3%	59.8%	14.2%	23.7%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	42.5%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.7%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	42.5%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.7%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	42.5%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.7%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.7%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.8%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.8%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	23.8%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	38.9%	16.2%	59.8%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	27.4%	16.2%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	27.4%	16.2%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	27.4%	16.2%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	27.4%	16.2%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	27.4%	16.2%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	27.4%	13.5%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	27.4%	13.5%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	27.4%	13.5%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	30.0%	13.5%	59.8%	34.2%	44.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
ICON	45%	71.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	69.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	69.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗