KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

85%

84%

60%

43%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

ICONNO 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.50u · ICON −28.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	35.7%	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	85.2%	—	—	44.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	0.4%	41.9%	—	—	56.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	89.5%	4.9%	—	64.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	94.7%	83.5%	74.6%	—	70.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	95.9%	16.9%	67.0%	—	69.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	61.8%	99.2%	78.2%	—	71.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	65.5%	96.2%	53.3%	—	62.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	47.4%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	37.9%	59.6%	44.8%	—	51.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	48.2%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	45.4%	42.7%	—	39.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	43.4%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	55.8%	60.6%	68.7%	—	46.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	49.0%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	41.8%	61.2%	58.2%	—	42.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	48.9%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.5%	84.5%	72.7%	—	48.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	57.8%	93.3%	73.3%	—	48.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	59.2%	84.7%	83.2%	34.1%	45.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	56.0%	78.4%	79.2%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	52.5%	92.5%	79.2%	32.0%	51.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	47.4%	90.2%	62.7%	—	28.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	59.3%	85.1%	63.2%	13.4%	38.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	51.4%	91.9%	73.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	50.0%	91.1%	70.7%	17.2%	44.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	42.5%	92.0%	60.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	30.3%	86.6%	53.2%	23.8%	23.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	46.7%	79.7%	43.4%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	65.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗