KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

85%

84%

60%

43%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

ICONNO 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.50u · ICON −28.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	87.1%	49.2%	85.6%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	87.1%	49.2%	85.6%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	87.1%	49.2%	85.6%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	87.1%	49.2%	85.6%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	85.0%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	85.0%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	85.0%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	85.0%	78.0%	11.2%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	82.9%	68.6%	84.8%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	82.9%	68.6%	84.8%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	82.9%	69.1%	84.8%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	82.9%	69.1%	84.8%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	82.9%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	82.9%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	82.9%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	93.0%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	75.9%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	93.0%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	75.9%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	93.0%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	75.9%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	93.0%	69.1%	90.3%	77.9%	75.9%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	93.0%	69.1%	90.3%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	93.0%	71.2%	93.1%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	93.0%	71.2%	93.1%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	93.0%	71.2%	93.1%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	82.5%	71.2%	93.1%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	82.5%	71.2%	93.1%	98.2%	75.9%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	96.1%	88.1%	95.5%	98.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	96.1%	88.1%	95.5%	98.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	98.5%	88.1%	95.5%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	98.5%	88.1%	95.5%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	98.5%	88.1%	95.5%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	98.5%	88.1%	95.5%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	98.5%	88.1%	95.5%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	98.5%	89.0%	89.9%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	98.5%	89.0%	89.9%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	98.5%	89.0%	89.9%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	84.5%	89.0%	89.9%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	84.5%	89.0%	89.9%	90.2%	96.1%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	76.9%	44.5%	61.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	76.9%	44.5%	61.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	76.9%	44.5%	61.1%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	83.3%	44.5%	61.1%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	83.3%	44.5%	61.1%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	79.4%	91.3%	83.3%	44.5%	61.1%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	82.0%	91.3%	83.3%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	82.0%	91.3%	83.3%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	82.0%	91.3%	83.3%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	82.0%	91.3%	83.3%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	82.0%	91.3%	83.3%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	82.0%	96.6%	82.9%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	82.0%	96.6%	82.9%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	82.0%	96.6%	82.9%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	82.8%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	82.8%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	82.8%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	82.8%	56.2%	61.1%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	83.5%	56.2%	46.9%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	83.5%	56.2%	46.9%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	83.5%	56.2%	46.9%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	76.9%	96.6%	83.5%	56.2%	46.9%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	83.5%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	83.5%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	83.5%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	83.5%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	80.8%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	80.8%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	80.8%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	80.8%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	87.7%	46.5%	46.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	88.3%	46.5%	51.1%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	88.3%	46.5%	51.1%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	88.3%	46.5%	51.1%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	75.4%	96.4%	88.3%	46.5%	51.1%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	82.5%	96.4%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	82.5%	96.4%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	82.5%	96.4%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	82.5%	96.4%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	82.5%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	82.5%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	82.5%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	82.5%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	51.1%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	88.3%	56.8%	54.5%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	87.0%	56.8%	54.5%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	87.0%	56.8%	54.5%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	80.0%	99.9%	87.0%	56.8%	54.5%
2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	54.5%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	85.8%	70.4%	37.7%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	37.7%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	37.7%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	37.7%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	70.4%	37.7%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	83.2%	99.9%	87.0%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	83.3%	99.9%	87.0%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	83.3%	99.8%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	83.3%	99.8%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	83.3%	99.8%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	81.4%	99.8%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	81.4%	99.8%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	87.8%	63.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	87.8%	63.6%	43.2%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	84.6%	63.6%	43.2%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	84.6%	63.6%	43.2%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	81.4%	99.9%	84.6%	63.6%	43.2%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	84.5%	99.9%	84.6%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	84.5%	99.9%	84.6%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	84.5%	99.9%	84.6%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	84.5%	99.9%	84.6%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	84.5%	99.9%	84.6%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	84.5%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	84.5%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	84.5%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T03:11:28+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.1%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.9%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.9%	60.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	85.1%	99.8%	83.9%	60.5%	43.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	65.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗