KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

80%

71%

69%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.6¢Risks 38.82u

HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 11.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +11.18u · HRES −11.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	11.1%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	88.1%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	83.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.7%	84.9%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	88.8%	88.5%	30.5%	—	62.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	74.0%	95.1%	37.8%	—	52.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	54.6%	67.0%	59.1%	—	43.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	26.1%	58.7%	69.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	47.5%	37.7%	69.2%	—	43.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	19.6%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	20.2%	57.8%	44.8%	—	43.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	14.0%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	17.8%	16.6%	42.7%	—	43.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	20.3%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	20.3%	37.6%	31.3%	—	31.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	14.0%	48.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	29.4%	47.9%	30.3%	12.3%	25.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.0%	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	15.5%	62.9%	15.5%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	9.7%	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	8.5%	60.4%	5.7%	8.1%	15.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.2%	47.6%	3.1%	—	10.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	56.2%	2.6%	7.1%	10.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.6%	53.9%	1.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	7.4%	59.3%	1.6%	4.6%	6.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	8.6%	59.7%	2.5%	—	10.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	13.0%	54.3%	7.8%	5.5%	9.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	14.4%	53.0%	4.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	9.6%	54.7%	2.2%	8.9%	3.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	22.8%	50.0%	3.4%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	75.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	70.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	69.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.2°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	67.6°F	6.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗