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KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
87%
EPS
86%
AIFS
80%
WN2
71%
HRES
69%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 77.6¢Risks 38.82u
VS
HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 11.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +11.18u · HRES −11.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.9% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.9% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.9% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.9% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.9% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.0% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.0% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.0% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.0% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.0% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00ICON: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:0009-25 19:3909-25 23:2509-26 02:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:0099.3%85.0%77.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:0099.3%85.0%77.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:0099.3%85.0%77.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:0099.3%85.0%77.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:0099.3%85.0%77.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:0099.3%85.9%71.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:0099.3%85.9%71.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:0099.3%85.9%71.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:0079.6%85.9%71.0%68.6%86.7%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:0079.6%85.9%71.0%68.6%86.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON87%75.4°F9.8°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble86%70.2°F5.3°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
AIFS Single80%69.1°F5.6°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 271%67.2°F4.9°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
IFS HRES69%67.6°F6.4°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
National Blend54%65.0°F5.5°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗