KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

87%

82%

52%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.7¢Risks 73.70u

ICONNO 26.3¢Risks 26.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.30u · ICON −26.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	82.7%	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	72.5%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	41.9%	52.7%	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	27.5%	95.8%	75.9%	—	79.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	75.1%	82.5%	77.4%	—	73.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	66.3%	81.6%	76.1%	—	87.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	80.5%	82.6%	81.6%	82.1%	—	86.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	64.7%	—	64.7%	87.1%	78.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	55.1%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	86.4%	72.4%	92.3%	—	93.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	70.6%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	84.5%	91.0%	91.0%	—	93.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	87.8%	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	81.7%	85.8%	95.4%	—	90.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	97.2%	92.9%	85.5%	90.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	99.0%	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	98.6%	96.7%	22.1%	93.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	98.6%	56.7%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	98.7%	97.5%	—	90.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	97.1%	99.6%	98.4%	—	17.5%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	94.5%	99.6%	98.6%	93.3%	92.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.6%	100.0%	98.8%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	98.7%	99.9%	98.3%	96.5%	98.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.5%	99.9%	99.1%	—	99.1%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	100.0%	99.7%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.3%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	65.6°F	6.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	63.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	59.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	59.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗