KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

87%

82%

52%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.7¢Risks 73.70u

ICONNO 26.3¢Risks 26.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.30u · ICON −26.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	94.8%	92.4%	61.3%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	94.8%	92.4%	61.3%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	94.8%	92.4%	61.3%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	94.8%	92.4%	52.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	95.4%	92.4%	52.4%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	95.4%	92.4%	52.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	98.5%	96.5%	95.4%	92.4%	52.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	98.7%	96.5%	95.4%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	98.7%	96.5%	95.4%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	98.7%	96.5%	95.4%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	98.7%	96.5%	95.4%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	98.7%	96.5%	95.4%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	98.7%	95.0%	89.9%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	98.7%	95.0%	89.9%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	98.7%	95.0%	89.9%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	81.6%	95.0%	89.9%	86.8%	52.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	81.6%	95.0%	89.9%	86.8%	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	65.6°F	6.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	63.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	59.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	59.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗