KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

66%

62%

50%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.85u · HRES −25.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	90.5%	—	—	65.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	38.4%	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	4.8%	84.9%	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	1.9%	—	8.5%	69.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	55.1%	65.0%	53.6%	—	88.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	56.8%	27.7%	90.7%	—	91.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	88.9%	93.3%	—	91.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	96.1%	91.0%	93.9%	93.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	97.1%	94.8%	—	95.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	98.1%	89.8%	—	93.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	90.4%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	93.2%	100.0%	95.8%	—	97.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.8%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.1%	99.9%	99.1%	—	99.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.4%	10.9%	99.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	5.7%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	99.2%	12.7%	99.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.1°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	68.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	65.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	64.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗