KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

66%

62%

50%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.85u · HRES −25.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	82.5%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	82.5%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	82.5%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	82.5%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	27.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	82.6%	80.7%	21.2%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	96.6%	80.7%	21.2%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	96.6%	80.7%	21.2%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	80.1%	61.7%	96.6%	80.7%	21.2%
2026-09-29T19:28:15+00:00	90.9%	61.7%	96.6%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	90.9%	61.7%	96.6%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	90.9%	61.7%	96.6%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	90.9%	61.7%	96.6%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	90.9%	61.7%	96.6%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	90.9%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	90.9%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	90.9%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	90.9%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	98.2%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	98.2%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	98.2%	62.5%	98.3%	50.0%	66.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.1°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	68.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	65.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	64.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗